2023 Oscar Predictions
Annual predictions from a guy who only guesses correctly about 75% of the time.
Below you’ll find my predictions for tonight’s 95th Academy Awards. A few notes:
Where I haven’t noted “should win” it’s because I haven’t see enough of the nominees to register an opinion.
The toughest categories of the night are going to be Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. A lot of prognosticators are tilting towards Austin Butler for Elvis, but it’s unusual for Hollywood to award a young actor a lead award on their first nomination. If he wins, it feels like it will be the Academy’s way of also honoring Elvis Presley, but I still think Fraser’s comeback narrative and powerful performance will be enough to overcome the issues people have with The Whale as a whole.
Best Supporting Actress feels like Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon could easily win it, but it also feels like Jamie Lee Curtis has the momentum here.
Finally, while Everything Everywhere All at Once is the safe choice to win Best Picture, All Quiet on the Western Front could pull the upset. You have an Academy membership that has gone heavily international, and that combined with the film’s BAFTA success could get it over the top for Best Picture. We’ll find out tonight.
Best Picture
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Will Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor
Will Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Should Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Actress
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Animated Feature
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should Win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Cinematography
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Costume Design
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Documentary Feature
Will Win: Navalny
Documentary Short
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Film Editing
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
International Feature
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: The Whale
Should Win: The Batman
Original Score
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Song
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Production Design
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: Babylon
Animated Short
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Live Action Short
Will Win: Le Pupille
Sound
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Visual Effects
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: Tár
Hsu is great. I certainly wouldn’t be upset if she won.
I believe Jamie has momentum along with EEAAO, but I think her winning best supporting over Stephanie Hsu would be the true upset.