2024 Oscar Predictions
Here’s what I’m going with.
I don’t think this year’s Oscars will hold a lot of surprises when it comes to the winners (as for the show itself, you never know; a celebrity might come out of the audience to slap a comedian). That doesn’t mean the show will be bad; there’s just not a lot of margin for error in picking winners because so many of the categories feel like a lock. Here’s who I’m picking as well as who I feel should win among the nominees. If I’ve seen at least four out of the five nominees, I’ll also chime in with my thoughts on who should win.
Best Picture
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
I can’t see how Oppenheimer could lose. It’s not only won all the requisite precursor awards (PGA, DGA, SAG), but there’s no clear alternative. Maybe Zone of Interest? Maybe The Holdovers? But those feel like very long shots.
Best Director
Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
It’s funny that this is only Nolan’s second Best Director nomination (he was snubbed for The Dark Knight and Inception), but he’s gonna stroll away with his first Oscar for directing. There’s an outside chance that the Academy wants to give a second Oscar to Scorsese or the International academy wants to recognize Glazer, Lanthimos, or Triet, but like with Best Picture, these are long shots.
Best Actor
Should Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
There was a moment when it seemed like this would be a toss-up between Murphy and Paul Giamatti, but that moment has passed. Oscar voters have (reasonably) come to the conclusion that you can’t recognize Oppenheimer while ignoring the actor at the center of it.
Best Actress
Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
This is still a tight race. I’m tipping it to Gladstone because of her SAG win, but Emma Stone could still win for her performance in Poor Things. However, the Academy may be reluctant to award Stone a second acting Oscar (a rare feat that today typically happens across decades rather than years) so soon after La La Land. There’s also a dark horse candidate with Sandra Hüller possibly pulling out a win for Anatomy of a Fall. If you want to take a swing on your ballot, go for Hüller. I’m playing it (relatively) safe with Gladstone.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Should Win: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
Again, another lock. It was a great performance by an actor reminding audiences that he had another gear, and it’s a capper of a career comeback for the ages.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
One of the great success stories of the past several years has been seeing Randolph’s career take off like a rocket since her breakthrough in Dolemite Is My Name. My hope is that this Oscar win leads to even bigger roles for Randolph.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
While there’s a chance it could go to The Holdovers or Past Lives, I think this is where the Academy will recognize the film since they can’t give it Best International Feature (France submitted The Taste of Things instead, and that did not work out for them!)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Should Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
This is a tough category because Nolan could win it for Oppenheimer or Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach could win it for Barbie. But the prognosticators are leaning towards American Fiction, and my hunch is that for Academy voters who want to recognize the film, this is the place to do it.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: The Boy and the Heron
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
This will be close between Boy and the Heron and Spider-Verse. I’m leaning towards Boy and the Heron since Hayao Miyazaki is a legend, and it’s been over 20 years since he won in this category for Spirited Away. Also, Beyond the Spider-Verse is coming, so voters can wait to award the sequels since they’re telling one big story. As for my preference, I won’t be upset if The Boy and the Heron wins; I just liked Spider-Verse slightly more.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
This feels like a lock, especially with the film’s reliance on large-format and in-camera effects. Hoyte van Hoytema also feels overdue for a win (he should have been nominated and won last year for Nope for its groundbreaking night cinematography).
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Barbie
This is a close one, but I think the Academy will lean more towards the period-leaning choices of Poor Things rather than the delightful costumes of Barbie (Ken’s outfits alone are worth the award).
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Last Repair Shop
Best Editing
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
The editing here is superb, not just because of the way it handles the chronological jumps, but also that quite a bit of this movie is multiple people talking in a room. That can be surprisingly difficult to edit since you’re not only trying to convey the speaker, but also reactions to the speaker without over-cutting the scene.
Best International Feature
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
If Anatomy of a Fall had been France’s submission, this would be a contest. They didn’t, and it’s not. Zone of Interest is the only film nominated here that’s also nominated for Best Picture (among other awards), so it’s a lock to win this category.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Maestro
Should Win: Maestro
Some experts are leaning Poor Things here for the astounding work on Willem Dafoe’s face, but I think Netflix will get at least one Oscar for all their Maestro promotion (similar to how they got a single Oscar for Mank), and the aging makeup on Cooper and Mulligan really is quite exquisite.
Best Original Score
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
While I really like the score for American Fiction, Ludwig Göransson kind of outdid himself with his music for Oppenheimer.
Best Original Song
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”, Barbie
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”, Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” is a very good song, and I will not begrudge Billie Eilish her second Oscar (although we do have to note the absurd comedy of Eilish winning two Best Song Oscars in the span of three years while Diane Warren will lose in this category for the 15th straight time dating back to 1987, fourteen years before Eilish was even born). However, of the Barbie nominees, I love jamming out to the silly rock ballad of “I’m Just Ken.”
Best Production Design
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Barbie
This is another close one with Poor Things, but I feel like here is where Barbie pulls out a win because it created so many tactile sets while large chunks of Poor Things feel CGI-generated. That’s not to say that Poor Things has bad production design, but it’s not doing anything as nifty as Barbie and Ken’s journey to the real world using practical sets.
Best Animated Short
Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Best Live-Action Short
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Sound
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
The experts are leaning towards Oppenheimer here, and that’s a fair guess. I’m only leaning towards Zone of Interest because it’s sound design is so haunting and integral to the film’s overall effect that I feel like it will stick in voters’ minds more than what Oppenheimer is doing.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Godzilla Minus One
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
My large adult son will take home an Oscar or he will crush the Dolby Theater. This is the justice Godzilla demands.
I’d only disagree about makeup. I think Poor Things beats the doors off Maestro. Maybe because I think it’s a much better movie.