2024 Oscar Predictions

I don’t think this year’s Oscars will hold a lot of surprises when it comes to the winners (as for the show itself, you never know; a celebrity might come out of the audience to slap a comedian). That doesn’t mean the show will be bad; there’s just not a lot of margin for error in picking winners because so many of the categories feel like a lock. Here’s who I’m picking as well as who I feel should win among the nominees. If I’ve seen at least four out of the five nominees, I’ll also chime in with my thoughts on who should win.

Best Picture

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

I can’t see how Oppenheimer could lose. It’s not only won all the requisite precursor awards (PGA, DGA, SAG), but there’s no clear alternative. Maybe Zone of Interest? Maybe The Holdovers? But those feel like very long shots.

Best Director

Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

It’s funny that this is only Nolan’s second Best Director nomination (he was snubbed for The Dark Knight and Inception), but he’s gonna stroll away with his first Oscar for directing. There’s an outside chance that the Academy wants to give a second Oscar to Scorsese or the International academy wants to recognize Glazer, Lanthimos, or Triet, but like with Best Picture, these are long shots.

Best Actor

Should Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

There was a moment when it seemed like this would be a toss-up between Murphy and Paul Giamatti, but that moment has passed. Oscar voters have (reasonably) come to the conclusion that you can’t recognize Oppenheimer while ignoring the actor at the center of it.

Best Actress

Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Should Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

This is still a tight race. I’m tipping it to Gladstone because of her SAG win, but Emma Stone could still win for her performance in Poor Things. However, the Academy may be reluctant to award Stone a second acting Oscar (a rare feat that today typically happens across decades rather than years) so soon after La La Land. There’s also a dark horse candidate with Sandra Hüller possibly pulling out a win for Anatomy of a Fall. If you want to take a swing on your ballot, go for Hüller. I’m playing it (relatively) safe with Gladstone.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Should Win: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

Again, another lock. It was a great performance by an actor reminding audiences that he had another gear, and it’s a capper of a career comeback for the ages.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

One of the great success stories of the past several years has been seeing Randolph’s career take off like a rocket since her breakthrough in Dolemite Is My Name. My hope is that this Oscar win leads to even bigger roles for Randolph.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

Should Win: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

While there’s a chance it could go to The Holdovers or Past Lives, I think this is where the Academy will recognize the film since they can’t give it Best International Feature (France submitted The Taste of Things instead, and that did not work out for them!)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Should Win: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

This is a tough category because Nolan could win it for Oppenheimer or Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach could win it for Barbie. But the prognosticators are leaning towards American Fiction, and my hunch is that for Academy voters who want to recognize the film, this is the place to do it.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: The Boy and the Heron

Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This will be close between Boy and the Heron and Spider-Verse. I’m leaning towards Boy and the Heron since Hayao Miyazaki is a legend, and it’s been over 20 years since he won in this category for Spirited Away. Also, Beyond the Spider-Verse is coming, so voters can wait to award the sequels since they’re telling one big story. As for my preference, I won’t be upset if The Boy and the Heron wins; I just liked Spider-Verse slightly more.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

This feels like a lock, especially with the film’s reliance on large-format and in-camera effects. Hoyte van Hoytema also feels overdue for a win (he should have been nominated and won last year for Nope for its groundbreaking night cinematography).

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Poor Things

Should Win: Barbie

This is a close one, but I think the Academy will lean more towards the period-leaning choices of Poor Things rather than the delightful costumes of Barbie (Ken’s outfits alone are worth the award).

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: The Last Repair Shop

Best Editing

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

The editing here is superb, not just because of the way it handles the chronological jumps, but also that quite a bit of this movie is multiple people talking in a room. That can be surprisingly difficult to edit since you’re not only trying to convey the speaker, but also reactions to the speaker without over-cutting the scene.

Best International Feature

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

If Anatomy of a Fall had been France’s submission, this would be a contest. They didn’t, and it’s not. Zone of Interest is the only film nominated here that’s also nominated for Best Picture (among other awards), so it’s a lock to win this category.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Maestro

Should Win: Maestro

Some experts are leaning Poor Things here for the astounding work on Willem Dafoe’s face, but I think Netflix will get at least one Oscar for all their Maestro promotion (similar to how they got a single Oscar for Mank), and the aging makeup on Cooper and Mulligan really is quite exquisite.

Best Original Score

Will Win: Oppenheimer

Should Win: Oppenheimer

While I really like the score for American Fiction, Ludwig Göransson kind of outdid himself with his music for Oppenheimer.

Best Original Song

Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”, Barbie

Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”, Barbie

“What Was I Made For?” is a very good song, and I will not begrudge Billie Eilish her second Oscar (although we do have to note the absurd comedy of Eilish winning two Best Song Oscars in the span of three years while Diane Warren will lose in this category for the 15th straight time dating back to 1987, fourteen years before Eilish was even born). However, of the Barbie nominees, I love jamming out to the silly rock ballad of “I’m Just Ken.”

Best Production Design

Will Win: Barbie

Should Win: Barbie

This is another close one with Poor Things, but I feel like here is where Barbie pulls out a win because it created so many tactile sets while large chunks of Poor Things feel CGI-generated. That’s not to say that Poor Things has bad production design, but it’s not doing anything as nifty as Barbie and Ken’s journey to the real world using practical sets.

Best Animated Short

Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Best Live-Action Short

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Best Sound

Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Should Win: The Zone of Interest

The experts are leaning towards Oppenheimer here, and that’s a fair guess. I’m only leaning towards Zone of Interest because it’s sound design is so haunting and integral to the film’s overall effect that I feel like it will stick in voters’ minds more than what Oppenheimer is doing.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

My large adult son will take home an Oscar or he will crush the Dolby Theater. This is the justice Godzilla demands.