2022 Oscar Predictions
The Oscars are silly, but ballots are fun.
Yes, the Oscars as an institution have limited utility, but that doesn’t mean it’s not fun to play the home version and guess who should win and who will win. I do this every year, and I don’t see any reason to stop now.
Best Picture
Will Win: CODA
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
I keep going back and forth on this, but my gut is finally relenting to my brain and saying that CODA will take home the Best Picture win because (and again, this is why the Oscars are dumb), the timing is right. It got “discovered” at the right time by the Academy membership, and it’s a feel-good film when I think that’s what voters are looking for right now. But I think The Power of the Dog is the more enduring picture, and I really hope it gets the Criterion treatment like Netflix did with Roma and The Irishman.
Best Director
Will Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
CODA director Siân Heder isn’t even nominated in this category, but I think even if she was, the Academy wants to recognize a stalwart like Campion and they also want to recognize The Power of the Dog (which, as 12 nominations, is the most-nominated movie this year). This is how they’ll do it.
Best Actor
Will Win: Will Smith, King Richard
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
I liked King Richard and I thought Smith gave a good performance, so I’m not going to be mad if he wins, but it’s also a very conventional win for a conventional performance. You have long-time movie star Smith trying to calibrate himself to a dramatic mode, and while I think he achieves what he’s going for, this article by Soroya Nadia McDonald points out that Smith has never pushed himself like his peers to work with directors who may challenge his charisma and unlock new facets of his acting ability. I’m always reminded of the story of why Will Smith passed on Django Unchained—it’s because he didn’t understand why Django doesn’t get to kill Candie.1 So he ended up missing out on a great movie and working with Quentin Tarantino. While it’s been fascinating to see Smith’s recent trilogy of work (Bad Boys for Life, Spies in Disguise, and Gemini Man), which are all about a guy who was the coolest dude around getting older and realizing that he may have something to learn from the next generation, I hope, like McDonald, that this Oscar win pushes Smith out of his comfort zone and into working with directors who will start to challenge his polished persona.
I prefer Cumberbatch because I don’t think he’s ever been more perfectly cast in a movie. Cumberbatch is no stranger to playing brilliant and cruel men, but The Power of the Dog pushes him to show the frailty and fear behind those choices. The Power of the Dog essentially takes a familiar Cumberbatch character and turns it inside out to marvelous effect.
Best Actress
Will Win: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Like with Smith, I don’t really have a problem with Chastain winning even though (again like Smith), I think she’s been better in previous movies. But the Academy loves famous people playing real people, and Chastain seems to have become the favorite to win this category. Even though Colman won just a few years ago, I find her performance more impressive and difficult, but again, I’m not going to be upset if Chastain wins.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
I like Kotsur a lot, so again, not feeling bad if he wins this one. I just prefer Smit-McPhee because not only is it a fascinating performance, and I didn’t think he had it in him. You never really know how child stars will mature into adult actors, and I think Hollywood was having a tough time figuring out what to do with him, but I think his work in The Power of the Dog is going to open some doors to more exciting projects for him.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Should Win: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
No one is going to be mad when DeBose wins, myself included. I’m just a longtime Dunst fan (again, thinking about child stars who manage to have terrific careers as adults), and think that her win is a long time coming. Unfortunately, she’ll have to wait a little longer since this is DeBose’s year.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Don’t Look Up
Should Win: Licorice Pizza
I find Licorice Pizza to be a deft coming-of-age flick that may be imperfect in some of its scene, but overall manages to feel both deeply personal and also universal. It shows a director continuing to evolve as he turns inward and towards the past. Don’t Look Up is 2 hours and 18 minutes of noxious scolding from two blowhards who don’t even fully understand the problem they’re trying to address. But voters want to show that they appreciate climate change and so they’ll award McKay and Sirota to show that Hollywood Cares.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Siân Heder, CODA
Should Win: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
I already addressed this one in the Best Picture category, so there’s not much need to repeat myself here.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Encanto
Should Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
I like Encanto a lot and (see if you can sense a theme), I’m not going to be annoyed if it wins. I just think The Mitchells vs. The Machines is a much stronger movie, but I’ll also admit that pretty much anything Phil Lord & Christopher Miller do (they produced this one) is on my wavelength. Still, there’s really no beating Encanto and its many earworms.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Summer of Soul
Should Win: Flee
Always pick the nicest, most uplifting documentary of the nominees and you usually can’t go wrong. I think Flee is better, but it’s hard to get upset at the thought of Questlove taking home an Oscar.
Best International Feature
Will Win: Drive My Car
Should Win: Drive My Car
As the only International nominee to also receive nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay, I feel like this is where the Academy will recognize this lovely and beautiful feature.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
This is a close one, but sometimes it helps to think of the Oscars in terms of “most” and at that point, Grieg Fraser’s cinematography for Dune is pretty undeniable. Still, I was far more moved by what Ari Wegner did with The Power of the Dog.
Best Score
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
The Dune score: I don’t like it! Some people are all for it, but I’ve listened to it start-to-finish several times and it never really sticks with me. Give the award to my man Jonny Greenwood, who should have at least been nominated in 2007 for There Will Be Blood and in 2017 for You Were Never Really Here.
Best Song
Will Win: No Time to Die
Should Win: No Time to Die
This is such a weird category because the obvious winner should be “We Don’t Talk about Bruno” but Disney didn’t think to submit it, and so you’ve got the lesser “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto, which could play spoiler, but Bond themes have been pretty reliable winners during the Daniel Craig years when they managed to snag a nomination.
Best Sound
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: West Side Story
I’m going to bank a lot of faith on Dune in this and other categories because it’s the technical powerhouse of the bunch even though I think in the case of Best Sound what West Side Story is doing, especially as a musical, is far more interesting.
Best Editing
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: The Power of the Dog
As long as Don’t Look Up and its overwrought, obvious choices doesn’t win, I’ll be happy.
Best Production Design
Will Win: Nightmare Alley
Should Win: The Tragedy of Macbeth
This is my no-guts, no-glory pick. The experts say Dune, my heart wants The Tragedy of Macbeth, and yet I feel like the design of the carnival in Nightmare Alley is impossible to ignore.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Cruella
Should Win: Cruella
It’s a movie about fashion. It’s a safe bet for Jenny Beavan to win her third Oscar.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Oscar voters love these kinds of transformations into actual people (see Darkest Hour, Bombshell).
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Pro-tip: The film that’s nominated for Best Picture will win in Best Visual Effects. If none of the VFX nominees are nominated for Best Picture, go with the one that feels the most prestige-y of the bunch (e.g. Blade Runner 2049).
Best Animated Short
“Robin Robin”
Best Documentary Short
“Audible”
Best Live-Action Short
“Please Hold”
I have no idea about the short categories, but I trust Kyle Buchanan!
To answer Smith’s question about why Django doesn’t kill Candie, it’s because one of the major themes of Django Unchained is notions of civility and how it can be a cruel façade in the face of power structures. Dr. King Schultz (Christoph Waltz) spends most of the movie believing that civilization is a saving grace that puts restrictions on barbarity. Schultz is a murderer, but within the confines of bounty hunting, he is providing a service. The reason Schultz can’t shake Candie’s hand and knows that killing him is certain death for himself is that Candie has shattered Schultz’ belief in civility because Candie is an absolute mockery of that civility from his clothes to his manner to his business. The reason Django doesn’t kill Candie is that Django already knows that civility is a farce. Django killing Candie has no thematic weight. Smith could only see the conflict insofar as Django is the good guy and Candie is the bad guy. In 2021, Smith said he passed on Django Unchained because he didn’t want to make a slavery movie about vengeance, and that his upcoming film Emancipation is a slavery story about black love.
If Lin-Manuel Miranda wins for Best Song, that makes him an EGOT.
I definitely agree that the Greenwood score works better when listening to it on its own. But for me the Zimmer’s score really fits Dune. I’d edge Dune personally. I think the bombastic nature of it complements the understated nature of the characters. But wouldn’t be upset if Greenwood won. Can’t believe he made music for Power of the Dog, Spencer and Licorice Pizza, the man has been busy!