2026 Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are on Sunday, and we're still in toss-up territory for plenty of major categories. For a season that hasn't seen that much drama (Timothée Chalamet probably shouldn't have said those things about opera and ballet, but oh well), we've still got an incredibly close race between frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners. The major question is whether or not Sinners peaked at just the right time. One Battle After Another won the major precursor awards from the Director's Guild of America (DGA) and the Producers Guild of America (PGA), but there is also a sense that Sinners winning the Actor Award for Best Ensemble is a sign of its rising popularity. Still, SAG doesn't always line up with the winner for Best Picture (last year the SAG winner was Conclave but Best Picture went to Anora), and there's a lot of support for One Battle.

Below are my predictions for this year's Oscars, but for most of the categories, I'm as uncertain as I've been in a while. That should make for an exciting night where there's just as much of a chance of Sinners running away with the evening as there is of One Battle dominating. But this is how I see the evening shaking out:

Best Picture

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

I'm going to side with the experts here. Perhaps if I were embedded among Academy voters, I'd have a better idea of whether or not Sinners is really garnering the popularity it needs to take Best Picture. But I feel like enough voters are comfortable (especially given the way the DGA and PGA went) to award One Battle After Another with Best Picture. I certainly won't be upset if Sinners takes the award, but right now, I think Paul Thomas Anderson's picture is in a strong enough position to win the night's top prize.

Best Director

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

I don't see a split happening on Oscar night. If Ryan Coogler wins this, then Sinners is probably winning Best Picture. But I think the Academy is very big on directors who have been around for a while, and Anderson has been a force in the industry since the 90s. I think they want to give him this award, and they also know that Coogler will certainly have future opportunities to win given his immense talent and popularity.

Best Actor

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Should Win: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Probably the toughest category of the night. There's a serious case that any of the five nominees (even Chalamet!) could win the award. But Jordan winning Best Actor at the SAG, the impressiveness of his dual performances in Sinners, and the overall love for the movie should translate into him winning the Oscar. While I think Hawke gives one of the best performances of his long career in Blue Moon, I'm not sure if the film has enough juice to make an impact. Furthermore, studio spending is a major factor in Academy voting, and similar to how Neon outpaced Mubi for Best Actress last year with Mikey Madison beating out Demi Moore, I think Warner Bros. has more resources than Sony Pictures Classics.

Best Actress

Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You

A major category that should be a lock is Buckley for Hamnet. Her performance has received nothing but raves since the film's debut last fall, and she's a powerhouse of an actor. Even her new film, The Bride!, flopping at the box office, shouldn't do anything to slow down her momentum. There's a very outside chance that Rose Byrne could swoop in, but that's probably just wishful thinking on my part for an actor I've long admired. At least she's now an Oscar nominee, and I'm excited to see what roles Byrne gets off the strength of her acclaimed performance.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Should Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

In the supporting categories, if Delroy Lindo and Wunmi Mosaku win, Sinners is going to have a big night. If Sean Penn/Benicio del Toro and Teyana Taylor win, One Battle After Another is going to have a big night. But I think the Academy is eager to spread the love around, especially for veteran performers like Skarsgård. While I personally think his character is a lead, it's at least enough of a grey area that it's not too annoying to see him get his first Oscar for this performance. It's also a way to recognize that he's been churning out some of the best work of his long career (see Chernobyl and Andor). The experts are saying Sean Penn, and he certainly does have a history of taking the award from more deserving winners (Depp and Murray in 2004; Rourke in 2009), but I think you shouldn't discount how much the international branch would want to recognize Skarsgård.

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Should Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons

While it's unusual for a horror movie to win much at the Oscars, it does happen, especially when the talent is undeniable. Madigan, another veteran actor, crafted an iconic horror villain with Aunt Gladys, and while there's been opportunity after opportunity to count her out of the race because of the genre trapping of her movie, she just keeps coming back, recently winning the Actor Award for Best Supporting Actress. I hope she does the peculiar run up the Dolby Theater steps.

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: It Was Just an Accident

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters

Best Documentary

Will Win: The Perfect Neighbor

Should Win: The Alabama Solution

Best Foreign Language Feature

Will Win: Sentimental Value

Should Win: It Was Just an Accident

Best Casting

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: Sinners

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Frankenstein

Should Win: Sinners

Best Editing

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win: Frankenstein

Should Win: Frankenstein

Best Production Design

Will Win: Frankenstein

Should Win: Marty Supreme

Best Score

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: Sinners

Best Song

Will Win: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters

Should Win: "I Lied to You" from Sinners

Best Sound

Will Win: F1

Should Win: Sinners

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should Win: Sinners

Best Animated Short

Will Win: "Butterfly"

Best Documentary Short

Will Win: "All the Empty Rooms"

Best Live-Action Short

Will Win: "Two People Exchanging Saliva"

The 98th Academy Awards will air Sunday, March 15th at 7pm ET on ABC and Hulu